Vertex MMA · Model

Simulation

Winner probabilities, top driving features, and Monte Carlo round-by-round distributions for every scheduled UFC bout.

Model v0.14.0

scheduled bouts

Dream fight simulatorPick any two fighters — each at the form from any bout of their career — and let the model score it.Build a matchup →

Upcoming events
6
High-confidence picks
25
Edges vs market
2
Recent accuracy
62%
60 graded picks

The model performs at roughly market level — its edge over simply picking the betting favourite is small, and graded picks skew toward more predictable matchups.

Filter:All bouts High-confidence only Med+High Value vs market· 2/57 shown

Recently graded

last 10 picks vs actual

called at 61%KOOct 24
called at 84%U-DecOct 24
called at 58%KOOct 24
called at 54%SubOct 24
called at 61%KOOct 24
called at 55%KOOct 24
called at 73%U-DecOct 24

December 12, 20262 bouts

Predictions come from a blend of LightGBM, CatBoost and logistic regression trained on historical UFC bouts, plus a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulator for the per-round distribution. The blended probability is published as-is, without post-hoc calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.