Vertex MMA · Model

Simulation

Calibrated winner probabilities, top driving features, and Monte Carlo round-by-round distributions for every scheduled UFC bout.

Model v0.11.0

scheduled bouts

Dream fight simulatorPick any two fighters — each at the form from any bout of their career — and let the model score it.Build a matchup →

Upcoming events
9
High-confidence picks
24
Edges vs market
9
Recent accuracy
65%
60 graded picks

The model performs at roughly market level — its edge over simply picking the betting favourite is small, and graded picks skew toward more predictable matchups.

Filter:All bouts High-confidence only Med+High Value vs market· 9/64 shown

Recently graded

last 10 picks vs actual

called at 50%KOJul 25
called at 68%SubJul 25
called at 60%KOJul 25
called at 66%KOJul 25
called at 60%U-DecJul 25
called at 62%SubJul 25
called at 67%KOJul 25

August 1, 20268 bouts

August 15, 20261 bout

Predictions come from a LightGBM + XGBoost + LogReg ensemble trained on every historical UFC bout with isotonic-style calibration, plus a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulator for the per-round distribution. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.