Vertex MMA · Model

Simulation

Calibrated winner probabilities, top driving features, and Monte Carlo round-by-round distributions for every scheduled UFC bout.

Model v0.14.0

scheduled bouts

Dream fight simulatorPick any two fighters — each at the form from any bout of their career — and let the model score it.Build a matchup →

Upcoming events
10
High-confidence picks
23
Edges vs market
6
Recent accuracy
60%
60 graded picks

The model performs at roughly market level — its edge over simply picking the betting favourite is small, and graded picks skew toward more predictable matchups.

Filter:All bouts High-confidence only Med+High Value vs market· 6/63 shown

Recently graded

last 10 picks vs actual

called at 65%U-DecSep 12
called at 51%SubSep 12
called at 57%U-DecSep 12
called at 58%S-DecSep 12
called at 68%U-DecSep 12
called at 71%KOSep 12
called at 76%SubSep 12

September 19, 20264 bouts

October 24, 20262 bouts

Predictions come from a LightGBM + XGBoost + LogReg ensemble trained on every historical UFC bout with isotonic-style calibration, plus a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulator for the per-round distribution. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.