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Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes | Vertex MMA
Bout· Lightweight · 3 rounds
December 12, 2026 · Las Vegas
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 54% Diego Lopes vs Charles Oliveira · 45.6%
Why the model thinks so Age gap +5 yr favors Diego Lopes Age curve advantage favors Diego Lopes Takedown defense gap
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner market 1.53 / 2.45 Charles Oliveira 2.06 model 47% Diego Lopes 1.80 model 53% Value +15
Method Charles Oliveira by KO/TKO8.84 model 10% Charles Oliveira by submission6.54 model 14% Charles Oliveira by decision4.21 model 22% Diego Lopes by KO/TKO3.68 model 25% Diego Lopes by submission10.07 model 9% Diego Lopes by decision4.87 model 19%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.86 model 50% Under 2.5 1.85 model 50%
Goes the distance Yes 2.26 model 41% No 1.57 model 59%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
-22%
A blend of LightGBM, CatBoost and logistic regression trained on historical UFC bouts, published without post-hoc calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 5:15 Most likely: Decision round — (41%)
KO/TKO · 36% · 10/26 Submission · 23% · 14/9 Decision · 41% · 22/19
Charles Oliveira / Diego Lopes
41%
