UFC Shanghai predictions

UFC Shanghai presents a pivotal bantamweight showdown between two fighters heading in opposite directions. Umar Nurmagomedov, ranked No. 3 globally, looks to bounce back after losing a title fight to Merab Dvalishvili, while Song Yadong, ranked No. 7, fights at home in China hoping finally to prove he can defeat elite competition in their prime.

Nurmagomedov enters as the technical favorite—a more complete wrestler with superior ground control and striking ability. Song, however, has notable scalps on his record, including victories over Henry Cejudo, Marlon Moraes, and Marlon Vera. When Song's striking heats up, few bantamweights dare trade with him, but against the sport's elite he often looks a step behind. Nurmagomedov's versatility and ability to impose his will should prevail, with a third-round submission or knockout likely.

The strawweight co-main event pairs Yan Xiaonan (ranked 4th, 18th pound-for-pound) against Denise Gomes (ranked 13th). Gomes has won four straight—tied for the division's longest active streak with champion Mackenzie Dern. Though Yan brings championship experience and elite technical striking, Gomes' youth and power edge should carry the day in what figures as a striking-heavy affair.

In other main card action: Kai Asakura, the former RIZIN star thriving at 135 pounds, faces Aoriqileng and should win decisively with his superior speed and accuracy. Alex Perez takes on Sumudaerji in a rematch after their first fight ended in a no-contest when Sumudaerji landed a low kick; Perez's wrestling and experience should prevail in a decision. Liu Ce, a K-1 kickboxing champion, makes his UFC debut. Bilal Hassan, a Contender Series prospect, fights for the second time in under three weeks.

The event airs live on Paramount+ from the Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, with the seven-fight early preliminary card beginning at 3 a.m. ET Saturday and the six-fight main card following at 6 a.m. ET.