Former UFC champ shares strategy for Justin Gaethje to upset Ilia Topuria

Former UFC lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez has outlined a specific blueprint for Justin Gaethje to upset undefeated challenger Ilia Topuria in their lightweight title unification bout at UFC Freedom 250 on June 14. Alvarez emphasized leg kicks as Gaethje's primary weapon, a strategy he knows firsthand from their 2017 clash at UFC 218—where Alvarez knocked out Gaethje with a knee but saw the interim champion land meaningful damage only with calf strikes.

According to Alvarez, Gaethje's knockout opportunities lie in counter-attacking between Topuria's combinations rather than leading the offense. "I think his best shot is catching him in between Ilia's exchanges. Ilia has too sharp of eyes for Justin to lead and catch him. Justin has to be brave and go in between, when Ilia goes then Justin has to go," Alvarez explained. Topuria's defensive acuity makes frontal assaults too risky, forcing Gaethje into a reactive role where timing becomes critical.

However, Alvarez also identified vulnerabilities in Gaethje's defensive approach. The former champion expressed concern that Gaethje drops his eyes when tracking opponents—a liability that invites counters—and relies on shell-up defense rather than active head movement and angle cutting. These weaknesses could prove costly against Topuria's precision striking. Gaethje enters the bout as interim champion, riding a five-fight winning streak, while Topuria remains undefeated at 17-0 in his professional record.