UFC Baku predictions

UFC Baku takes place Saturday at the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan, with preliminary action beginning at 9 a.m. ET and the main card at 12 p.m. ET, streaming on Paramount+. The event features several high-stakes matchups with regional significance and divisional implications.

Rafael Fiziev faces Mexico's Manuel Torres in what could be a pivotal moment for the Azerbaijani lightweight. Once a surging title contender, Fiziev has struggled recently, winning just once in his past five fights and most recently losing by knockout to Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 325. Torres, meanwhile, has won five of his last six bouts since earning his UFC deal through Dana White's Contender Series in 2021. For Fiziev—a technical striker and fan favorite known for putting on exciting performances—a loss at home could spell the end of his main card headlining opportunities.

The main card also features a middleweight clash between Shara Bullet and Michel Pereira, with top-15 flyweights Amu Almabayev and Charles Johnson competing for divisional positioning. Ikram Aliskerov will look to establish himself as a legitimate middleweight contender against the hard-hitting Brunno Ferreira, while Nazim Sadykhov—one of four Azerbaijani fighters on the card—faces Brazil's Matheus Camilo in a test of his striking and takedown defense.

Fiziev's experience and fundamental technical striking could prove decisive if he survives Torres's potent early-round threat. Almabayev's wrestling acumen should carry him past Johnson on the scorecards, though Johnson's underdog mentality and knockout power present real danger. Aliskerov's cage control and power should eventually overwhelm Ferreira, while Sadykhov's superior striking should help him navigate Camilo's pressure over three rounds.