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Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo | Vertex MMA
Bout· Lightweight · 3 rounds
August 8, 2026 · Las Vegas
Vertex Simulation v0.11.0 56% Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo · 43.6%
Why the model thinks so Age gap +4 yr favors Billy Quarantillo Billy Quarantillo's layoff 602 d favors Diego Ferreira
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Diego Ferreira 1.70 model 56% Billy Quarantillo 2.21 model 44%
Method Diego Ferreira by KO/TKO5.07 model 18% Diego Ferreira by submission6.72 model 14% Diego Ferreira by decision3.80 model 24% Billy Quarantillo by KO/TKO4.95 model 19% Billy Quarantillo by submission17.41 model 5% Billy Quarantillo by decision4.74 model 20%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.74 model 53% Under 2.5 1.98 model 47%
Goes the distance Yes 2.11 model 44% No 1.65 model 56%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Age curve advantage
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 5:37 Most likely: Decision round — (44%)
KO/TKO · 37% · 18/19 Submission · 19% · 14/5 Decision · 44% · 24/20
Diego Ferreira / Billy Quarantillo
44%
