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Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott | Vertex MMA
Bout· Main event · Welterweight · 5 rounds
October 17, 2026 · Edmonton
Vertex Simulation v0.11.0 59% Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott · 40.7%
Why the model thinks so Vertex Score gap -12 favors Mike Malott Age gap -2 yr favors Joaquin Buckley
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Joaquin Buckley 1.62 model 59% Mike Malott 2.36 model 41%
Method Joaquin Buckley by KO/TKO3.05 model 30% Joaquin Buckley by submission14.45 model 6% Joaquin Buckley by decision4.13 model 22% Mike Malott by KO/TKO4.23 model 22% Mike Malott by submission22.35 model 4% Mike Malott by decision6.30 model 15%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.71 model 54% Under 2.5 2.02 model 46%
Goes the distance Yes 2.49 model 37% No 1.47 model 63%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Wingspan-to-height advantage
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 7:18 Most likely: Decision round — (37%)
KO/TKO · 52% · 30/22 Submission · 11% · 6/4 Decision · 37% · 22/15
Joaquin Buckley / Mike Malott
5%
