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Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann | Vertex MMA
Bout· Heavyweight · 3 rounds
September 5, 2026 · Paris
Vertex Simulation v0.11.0 77% Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann · 23.2%
Why the model thinks so Age gap -7 yr favors Mario Pinto Strike accuracy gap +27% favors Mario Pinto
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Mario Pinto 1.25 model 77% Ryan Spann 4.15 model 23%
Method Mario Pinto by KO/TKO3.42 model 27% Mario Pinto by submission4.81 model 19% Mario Pinto by decision3.03 model 31% Ryan Spann by KO/TKO11.87 model 8% Ryan Spann by submission14.41 model 6% Ryan Spann by decision10.35 model 9%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.90 model 49% Under 2.5 1.81 model 51%
Goes the distance Yes 2.35 model 39% No 1.53 model 61%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Finishing-defense gap
-31%
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 5:22 Most likely: Decision round — (39%)
KO/TKO · 35% · 27/8 Submission · 26% · 19/6 Decision · 39% · 31/9
Mario Pinto / Ryan Spann
39%
