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Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev | Vertex MMA
Bout· Middleweight · 3 rounds
October 3, 2026 · Salt Lake City
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 64% Ismail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori · 36.3%
Why the model thinks so Vertex Score gap -16 favors Ismail Naurdiev Age gap +3 yr favors Ismail Naurdiev
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Marvin Vettori 2.65 model 36% Ismail Naurdiev 1.51 model 64%
Method Marvin Vettori by KO/TKO12.22 model 8% Marvin Vettori by submission10.74 model 9% Marvin Vettori by decision4.61 model 20% Ismail Naurdiev by KO/TKO5.76 model 16% Ismail Naurdiev by submission25.00 model 3% Ismail Naurdiev by decision2.07 model 45%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.27 model 73% Under 2.5 3.43 model 27%
Goes the distance Yes 1.43 model 65% No 2.64 model 35%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Strikes absorbed gap
+2.80/min
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 6:30 Most likely: Decision round — (65%)
KO/TKO · 24% · 8/16 Submission · 11% · 9/3 Decision · 65% · 20/45
Marvin Vettori / Ismail Naurdiev
65%
