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Josiah Harrell vs Elves Brener | Vertex MMA
Bout· Lightweight · 3 rounds
September 26, 2026 · Las Vegas
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 57% Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell · 43.1%
Why the model thinks so Strikes absorbed gap +5.08/min favors Elves Brener Elves Brener's layoff 420 d favors Josiah Harrell
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Josiah Harrell 2.23 model 43% Elves Brener 1.69 model 57%
Method Josiah Harrell by KO/TKO6.39 model 14% Josiah Harrell by submission18.12 model 5% Josiah Harrell by decision3.95 model 23% Elves Brener by KO/TKO5.53 model 17% Elves Brener by submission4.76 model 19% Elves Brener by decision4.46 model 21%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.70 model 55% Under 2.5 2.04 model 45%
Goes the distance Yes 2.09 model 44% No 1.66 model 56%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Height gap -8 cm
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 5:49 Most likely: Decision round — (44%)
KO/TKO · 31% · 14/17 Submission · 25% · 5/19 Decision · 44% · 23/21
Josiah Harrell / Elves Brener
44%
