Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias

Bout·Light Heavyweight·3 rounds

August 15, 2026·Philadelphia

vs

scheduled

Vertex Simulation

v0.11.0

53%

Rafael Tobiasvs Lucas Fernando · 47.3%

Low confidence

Why the model thinks so

Age gap+6 yrfavors Rafael Tobias

LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.

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Winner

Method

Total rounds

Goes the distance

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