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Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler | Vertex MMA
Bout· Bantamweight · 3 rounds
October 17, 2026 · Edmonton
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 73% Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler · 27.4%
Why the model thinks so Vertex Score gap +17 favors Melissa Croden Finishing-defense gap -17% favors Melissa Croden
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Melissa Croden 1.32 model 73% Chelsea Chandler 3.51 model 27%
Method Melissa Croden by KO/TKO4.74 model 20% Melissa Croden by submission12.39 model 7% Melissa Croden by decision2.03 model 46% Chelsea Chandler by KO/TKO17.31 model 5% Chelsea Chandler by submission23.82 model 4% Chelsea Chandler by decision5.09 model 18%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.31 model 71% Under 2.5 3.15 model 29%
Goes the distance Yes 1.45 model 64% No 2.55 model 36%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Career win-rate gap +17%
Age gap -0 yr favors Melissa Croden LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 6:00 Most likely: Decision round — (64%)
KO/TKO · 25% · 20/5 Submission · 11% · 7/4 Decision · 64% · 46/18
Melissa Croden / Chelsea Chandler
64%
