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Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus | Vertex MMA
Bout· Middleweight · 3 rounds
October 17, 2026 · Edmonton
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 73% Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault · 27.1%
Why the model thinks so Strikes absorbed gap +2.70/min favors Kyle Daukaus Age gap +3 yr favors Kyle Daukaus
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Marc-Andre Barriault 3.55 model 27% Kyle Daukaus 1.32 model 73%
Method Marc-Andre Barriault by KO/TKO6.12 model 15% Marc-Andre Barriault by submission25.00 model 2% Marc-Andre Barriault by decision8.89 model 10% Kyle Daukaus by KO/TKO6.09 model 15% Kyle Daukaus by submission2.68 model 35% Kyle Daukaus by decision4.00 model 23%
Total rounds Over 2.5 2.03 model 46% Under 2.5 1.70 model 54%
Goes the distance Yes 2.76 model 34% No 1.39 model 66%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Age curve advantage
Strike accuracy gap -2% favors Kyle Daukaus LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 5:39 Most likely: KO/TKO round 1 (34%)
KO/TKO · 30% · 15/15 Submission · 36% · 2/35 Decision · 34% · 10/23
Marc-Andre Barriault / Kyle Daukaus
34%
