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Arnold Allen vs Aaron Pico | Vertex MMA
Bout· Featherweight · 3 rounds
October 24, 2026 · Abu Dhabi
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 59% Arnold Allen vs Aaron Pico · 41.3%
Why the model thinks so Age gap +3 yr favors Aaron Pico Finishing-defense gap -50% favors Arnold Allen
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Arnold Allen 1.64 model 59% Aaron Pico 2.33 model 41%
Method Arnold Allen by KO/TKO3.60 model 26% Arnold Allen by submission14.92 model 6% Arnold Allen by decision3.46 model 27% Aaron Pico by KO/TKO10.06 model 9% Aaron Pico by submission25.00 model 4% Aaron Pico by decision3.25 model 29%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.44 model 64% Under 2.5 2.59 model 36%
Goes the distance Yes 1.67 model 55% No 2.07 model 45%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Takedown rate gap -5.30/15
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 6:03 Most likely: Decision round — (55%)
KO/TKO · 35% · 26/9 Submission · 10% · 6/4 Decision · 55% · 27/29
Arnold Allen / Aaron Pico
55%
