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Myktybek Orolbai vs Jeremiah Wells | Vertex MMA
Bout· Welterweight · 3 rounds
August 15, 2026 · Philadelphia
Vertex Simulation v0.11.0 76% Myktybek Orolbai vs Jeremiah Wells · 24.2%
Why the model thinks so Vertex Score gap +22 favors Myktybek Orolbai Age gap -11 yr favors Myktybek Orolbai
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Myktybek Orolbai 1.27 model 76% Jeremiah Wells 3.98 model 24%
Method Myktybek Orolbai by KO/TKO5.82 model 16% Myktybek Orolbai by submission4.64 model 20% Myktybek Orolbai by decision2.32 model 40% Jeremiah Wells by KO/TKO13.56 model 7% Jeremiah Wells by submission17.96 model 5% Jeremiah Wells by decision7.61 model 12%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.50 model 62% Under 2.5 2.41 model 38%
Goes the distance Yes 1.78 model 52% No 1.93 model 48%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Age curve advantage
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 5:59 Most likely: Decision round — (52%)
KO/TKO · 23% · 16/7 Submission · 25% · 20/5 Decision · 52% · 40/12
Myktybek Orolbai / Jeremiah Wells
52%
