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Milos Janicic vs Noah Gugnon | Vertex MMA
Bout· Lightweight · 3 rounds
August 1, 2026 · Belgrade
Vertex Simulation v0.11.0 52% Noah Gugnon vs Milos Janicic · 47.9%
Low confidence
+0.8% vs market (51.3%)
Why the model thinks so Noah Gugnon's KDs absorbed favors Milos Janicic Age gap +3 yr favors Noah Gugnon
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner market 1.97 / 1.87 Milos Janicic 2.01 model 48% Noah Gugnon 1.84 model 52%
Method Milos Janicic by KO/TKO6.78 model 14% Milos Janicic by submission10.72 model 9% Milos Janicic by decision3.62 model 26% Noah Gugnon by KO/TKO6.09 model 15% Noah Gugnon by submission9.61 model 10% Noah Gugnon by decision3.39 model 27%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.48 model 63% Under 2.5 2.48 model 37%
Goes the distance Yes 1.75 model 53% No 1.96 model 47%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Noah Gugnon's layoff
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 6:05 Most likely: Decision round — (53%)
KO/TKO · 29% · 14/15 Submission · 18% · 9/10 Decision · 53% · 26/27
Milos Janicic / Noah Gugnon
53%