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Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus | Vertex MMA
Bout· Middleweight · 3 rounds
August 15, 2026 · Philadelphia
Vertex Simulation v0.11.0 59% Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus · 40.8%
Why the model thinks so Age gap -6 yr favors Mansur Abdul-Malik Strikes absorbed gap +1.68/min favors Dustin Stoltzfus
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Mansur Abdul-Malik 1.62 model 59% Dustin Stoltzfus 2.36 model 41%
Method Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO4.94 model 19% Mansur Abdul-Malik by submission5.52 model 17% Mansur Abdul-Malik by decision3.91 model 24% Dustin Stoltzfus by KO/TKO5.91 model 16% Dustin Stoltzfus by submission14.13 model 7% Dustin Stoltzfus by decision4.99 model 19%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.78 model 52% Under 2.5 1.93 model 48%
Goes the distance Yes 2.19 model 42% No 1.60 model 58%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Reach gap +13 cm
favors Mansur Abdul-Malik Dustin Stoltzfus's layoff 336 d favors Mansur Abdul-Malik LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 5:37 Most likely: Decision round — (42%)
KO/TKO · 34% · 19/16 Submission · 23% · 17/7 Decision · 42% · 24/19
Mansur Abdul-Malik / Dustin Stoltzfus
42%
