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Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos | Vertex MMA
Bout· Main event · Bantamweight · 5 rounds
September 26, 2026 · Las Vegas
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 80% Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos · 20.2%
Why the model thinks so Age gap -17 yr favors Raul Rosas Jr. Strikes absorbed gap -2.91/min favors Raul Rosas Jr.
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Raul Rosas Jr. 1.21 model 80% Raoni Barcelos 4.75 model 20%
Method Raul Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO5.75 model 16% Raul Rosas Jr. by submission4.42 model 21% Raul Rosas Jr. by decision2.17 model 43% Raoni Barcelos by KO/TKO14.72 model 6% Raoni Barcelos by submission25.00 model 2% Raoni Barcelos by decision7.69 model 12%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.29 model 72% Under 2.5 3.26 model 28%
Goes the distance Yes 1.69 model 55% No 2.05 model 45%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Takedown defense gap
-54%
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 8:56 Most likely: Decision round — (55%)
KO/TKO · 22% · 16/6 Submission · 23% · 21/2 Decision · 55% · 43/12
Raul Rosas Jr. / Raoni Barcelos
5%
